Kai Ostwald

I was trained as a political scientist with a focus on comparative politics. Within that subfield, I have worked on issues related to democratization, governance, ethnic politics, and the political economy of development. My work has increasingly moved toward international relations, examining how shifting geopolitical alignments—great power competition, regional security dynamics, and the reordering of global trade and diplomacy—shape governance and political transitions in the Indo-Pacific. My research has primarily been situated in Southeast Asia, with particular attention to Malaysia, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Singapore, and has grown to encompass broader questions about regional architecture, Canada's strategic engagement with the Indo-Pacific, and the evolving roles of ASEAN and middle powers in a multipolar world.

My research has been published in leading political science and area studies outlets, and has been supported by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), among others. I also work closely with policymakers and practitioners to bridge academic insights with real-world challenges, regularly engaging in Track 1.5 and Track 2 events, testifying before parliamentary committees, and advising on issues ranging from Canada-ASEAN relations to post-conflict scenarios in Myanmar.

Below is a list of selected publications organized by focus:

Canadian Foreign Policy and the Indo-Pacific:

• Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy requires rethinking like-mindedness (East Asia Forum, 2026)

• From Momentum to Meaning: Canada’s Strategic Opening in Southeast Asia on what is required for Canada to sustain momentum in SE Asia after the Trump shock (Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, 2025)

• Canada after Trump: Why the Indo-Pacific Can’t be an Afterthought (Asian Pacific Foundation of Canada - Dispatch, 2025)

• Canada’s Evolving Relationship with the ASEAN Region: reflecting on one year of Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, 2024).

• Canada and Southeast Asia in the new Indo-Pacific Era: lead article in a special issue on Canada-SE Asia relationship, which I coedited with Gregoire Legault and Dominique Caouette (Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 2023).

• Canada and ASEAN: the inaugural IPS year on how the Indo-Pacific Strategy has impacted the Canada-Southeast Asia relationship after one year (Asia Pacific Foundation, 2023)

• The 2019 Canada-ASEAN Business Outlook, survey-based report on conditions facing Canadian firms in the ASEAN region (CABC and UBC, 2019)

• Canada’s Foreign Policy and Bureaucratic (un)Responsiveness: Public Diplomacy in the Digital Domain: on how institutional stickiness limited the impact of government (and policy) change (with Julian Dierkes - Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, 2018)

• The Canada Advantage: Benefits of an ASEAN-Canada FTA, joint survey-based report based on Canada’s competitive positioning and strategic opportunities in SE Asia (CABC and UBC, 2018).

• The ASEAN Advantage: Exploring Canada’s Trade Potential, joint survey-based report that examines the opportunities and structural barriers shaping Canada’s trade relationship with ASEAN (CABC and UBC, 2017)

• 2016 Canada-ASEAN Business Outlook: extensive survey and report on Canadian business engagement across the ASEAN region (CABC and UBC, 2016)

Democratization and Elections:

• Reconsidering Regime Resilience in Malaysia and Singapore: which argues that the regimes can be thought of as a type of ideologically-bounded, vernacular democracy (Oxford Research Encyclopedia, 2024).

• The Power of a Vote in Malaysia: Malapportionment under UNDI18, AVR, and MA63, on electoral reforms and the impact of vote weightage (ISEAS Perspective , #30, 2024).

• The politics of malapportionment and electoral reform in a dominant party regime, on why dominant party regimes are structurally resistant to electoral reform (in Ting and Horowitz, Electoral Reform and Democracy in Malaysia, NIAS Press, 2023).

• Electoral Manipulation, Malpractice, and Turnover in Malaysia, on the limits of electoral manipulation and legitimacy (in Tan and Templeman, Electoral Malpractice in East and Southeast Asia, Lynne Rienner Press, 2023).

• Malaysia’s Democracy in the Shadow of Hegemonic Rule: on how the legacy of UMNO’s decades-long political dominance continues to shape political competition and the nature of Malaysia’s democracy, even after the party’s decline (ISEAS Fulcrum, 2023).

• Voting behaviour under doubts of ballot secrecy: reinforcing dominant party rule, on how voters who are concerned with ballot secrecy engage in incumbent-favouring behaviour (with Guillem Riambau - Democratization, 2023).

• Four Arenas: Malaysia’s 2018 Election, Democratization, and Reform: on the role of regionalism and identity in Malaysia’s 2018 election and the subsequent reform process (with Steven Oliver, Democratization, 2020)

• Opposition Party Credibility in Singapore’s 2020 Pandemic Election: on how valence considerations and variation in opposition party credibility shape Singapore’s politics, focusing on the 2020 election (with Steven Oliver, Pacific Affairs, 2020).

• Against the odds: Malaysia’s electoral process and Pakatan Harapan’s unlikely victory, on how the electoral system enabled the end of UMNO’s dominance in 2018 (in The Defeat of Barisan Nasional, ISEAS Publishing, 2019).

• Explaining Electoral Behaviour in Singapore: Party Credibility and Valence Voting: on how voting in Singapore is driven by perceptions of competence, rather than ideology, issues, and policy positions -- and how the PAP has been winning that credibility game. (with Steven Oliver - Journal of East Asian Studies, 2018).

• Electoral boundaries in Malaysia’s 2018 Election: malapportionment, gerrymandering, and UMNO’s fall, on how partisan manipulations to electoral boundaries affected the 2018 election (in UMNO’s Fall: Intra-elite feuding, the pursuit of power, and Malaysia’s 14th general elections, 2019).

• Triple Duel: The Impact of Coalition Fragmentation and Three-Corner Fights on the 2018 Malaysian Election: on how Malaysia’s opposition defeated the incumbent UMNO government despite losing a core partner (with Paul Schuler and Jie Ming Chong - Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 2018).

• Malaysia's Electoral Process: The Methods and Costs of Perpetuating UMNO Rule: on the systematic manipulation of Malaysia's electoral system (ISEAS Trends, 2017).

• How to win a lost election: on malapportionment in the Malaysian electoral system (The Round Table, 2013)

Identity, Regionalism, and Institutions:

• State Institutions in East Malaysia versus West Malaysia: Containing Grievances in an Ethno-religious Dominant Party System, on regionalism, identity, and party politics in Malaysia (with Salihin Subhan, in State Institutions, Civic Associations, and Identity Demands, 2024)

• The ‘green wave’ and other purported changes in Malaysian politics: on what the macro-level four arenas perspective says about the key political developments of the past decade (ISEAS Perspective, 2023, with Steven Oliver).

• Ethnic and National Identity: Origins, Contestations, and Polarization in Malaysia and Singapore, on the complex and evolving nature of identity in Malaysia and Singapore (with Isabel Chew, Routledge Handbook on Race and Ethnicity, 2021).

• Regional Identity Formation in Malaysia: on the endogenous manner of regional and ethnic identity formation in Malaysia, and how it has enabled the primacy of essentialized ethnic identities (with Mohamed Salihin Subhan - Asian Politics and Policies, 2021)

• National Service and Nation Building: Successes and Limitations of the Singaporean Experiences, on national service and nation building in Singapore (in National Service in Singapore, 2019)

• Power Distribution and Decentralisation in New Malaysia: on the struggles to redistribute power in post-UMNO Malaysia. (ISEAS Perspective, 2019)

• Rematch: Islamic politics, mobilization, and the Indonesian presidential election: an empirical assessment of the 2014 divisive presidential election using innovative data from all 480k polling stations (with Dimitar Gueorguiev and Paul Schuler - Political Science, 2019).

• Vernacular Education, Segregated Classrooms, and Ethnic Diversity: on whether de facto segregated SAP schools in Singapore produce alumni with less ethnically diverse social networks than their counterparts from matched non-SAP schools (with Elvin Ong and Dimitar Gueorguiev - Politics, Groups, and Identities, 2019).

• Local Elections, Decentralisation, and Institutional reform: on the possible return of local elections in post-UMNO Malaysia. (Chapter in “Minorities Matter” on Malaysia’s 2018 general election, 2019)

• Ethnic Segregation and Public Goods: Evidence from Indonesia: on how spatial segregation of ethnic groups reduces the "diversity penalty" in the provision of public goods (with Yuhki Tajima and Krislert Samphantharak - American Political Science Review, 2018).

• Federalism without Decentralization: Power Consolidation in Malaysia: on how subnational tiers of government in Malaysia has lost autonomy as the Prime Minister's Department has consolidated power. (Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 2017).

• Indonesia's Decentralization Experiment: Motivations, successes, and unintended consequences: on what Indonesia's 'big bang' decentralization has and hasn't achieved, and why (with Yuhki Tajima and Krislert Samphantharak - Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 2016)

Myanmar/Burma (where I’ve had a particular focus in recent years via UBC’s Myanmar Initiative):

• The Futures of Myanmar: Post-Conflict Scenarios: co-edited mini-book (with Dr Htet Thiha Zaw) on potential medium-term scenarios in eight key domains (Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, 2026).

• Introduction: The Futures of Myanmar, which assesses the trajectory of conflict, fragmentation, and potential outcomes (introduction to the above edited volume, 2026).

• Myanmar’s Wartime Polls: Managing Expectations, on the fundamental deficits and their implications of the 2025/26 “elections” (ISEAS Fulcrum, #281, 2025).

• Myanmar’s Transition Stalled - From Opening to Coup: special issue introduction on the last decade of transition and coup in Myanmar (Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia #31, 2021, with Kyaw Yin Hlaing)

• Myanmar’s Pro-Democracy Movement: on the various forms of resistance to the 2021 coup in Myanmar (Kyoto Review of Southeast Asia #31, 2021, with Kyaw Yin Hlaing)

• Malapportionment in Myanmar’s Elections: on the vast size differences in Myanmar (Burma)’s electoral constituencies, and how this colonial-era relic shapes electoral competition (with Constant Courtin - Contemporary Southeast Asia, 2020)

• Myanmar - Pandemic in a time of transition: on the legal and policy response to covid-19 in Myanmar (chapter in “Covid-19 in Asia, edited by Victor V. Ramraj, Oxford University Press 2020, with Tun Myint)

• Myanmar's Landmark Election: unresolved questions. (ISEAS Perspective #68, 2015, with Paul Schuler)

• Placebo Statements in List Experiments: on how the conventional list experiment format is vulnerable to bias and the simple fix (with Guillem Riambau - Political Science Research and Methods, 2021)

• Fieldwork and the Academic Job Market as a Southeast Asianist, with practical guidance for early career scholars of Southeast Asia (APSA Comparative Democratization Newsletter, #15, 2017)

• Context and comparison in Southeast Asia: on the practical dimension of conducting comparative research in Southeast Asia (with Paul Schuler -- Pacific Affairs, 2015)

Annual Reviews and Commentaries on SE Asian Politics:

• Malaysia’s reform aspirations clashed with political realities in 2024, on the tension between reform ambitions and structural constraints (East Asia Forum, 2025)

• Malaysia’s Evolving Monarchy: Adaptation and Expansion Amid Uncertainty, on how Malaysia’s monarchy has become more assertive amid domestic political uncertainty (ISEAS Fulcrum, 2025)

• The long game in Singapore’s ‘next gen’ politics, on the challenges facing newly elected PM Wong (East Asia Forum, 2024)

• Malaysia Unity Government’s Survival: on the stabilizing factors that give Anwar’s new unity government a good chance of remaining in power, despite attempts to topple it (ISEAS Perspective, 2023)

• Malaysia in 2022: year end review of Malaysian political developments during election year (Asian Survey, 2023, with Muhamad M. N. Nadzri)

• Anwar and the civil service: on how Malaysia’s new prime minister is approaching the country’s powerful civil service (ISEAS Fulcrum, 2023)

• Malaysia in 2021: year end review of Malaysian political developments during coup, emergency declaration, and government transition (Asian Survey, 2022)

• Malaysia 2020: The Impasse of two-coalition Politics: on the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan government and the instability of both coalitions. ISEAS Perspective, 2020)

• Singapore’s PAP and Malaysia’s transition. (East Asia Forum, 2018, with Steven Oliver)

• Centralisation in Malaysia under Najib. (East Asia Forum, 2018)

• Democratic Crossroads and Political Transitions in Southeast Asia: in “Southeast Asia in an Evolving Global Landscape”, on how international factors interact with domestic drivers of political transition in across Southeast Asia, 2017.

• Legitimacy and Longevity in Singapore’s Reserved Presidency. (East Asia Forum, 2017, with Isabel Chew)

• Limits of Economic Integration in ASEAN: on how the domestic political costs of dismantling non-tariff barriers limits economic integration under the AEC, 2016.

• Delayed Transition: The end of consensus rule in Vietnam? (with Paul Schuler, ISEAS Perspective #2, 2016)

• China's ambitions welcomed in Kuala Lumpur? (with Phuong Nguyen, Asia Pacific Memo#388, 2016)

• Has Chinese Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia entered a bolder and more assertive phase? (Asia Pacific Memo #342, 2015)

• LNG in British Columbia, Scandals in Malaysia, and the Complexity of Policy Decisions (Asia Pacific Memo #340. 2015)

• The Many Implications of Cheap Oil in Southeast Asia (Asia Pacific Foundation, 2015)

• Will the ASEAN Economic Community transform Southeast Asian economies in 2015 (Asia Pacific Memo #322, 2014, with Krislert Samphantharak)

• Ebola, SARS, and the Economies of Southeast Asia (ISEAS Perspective #63, 2014)

• The Perilous Start and Uncertain Future of the Jokowi Era in Indonesia (Asia Pacific Memo #311, 2014)

Selected media engagement:

• Battle Rhythm podcast - Canadian Defence and Security Network (Jun 2026)

• The Road Ahead podcast - Penang Institute, on Trump, geopolitical uncertainty, and middle power collaboration (Feb 2025)

• CBC and CTV News: coverage of the ASEAN and East Asia Summit (Oct 2024)

• Nikkei Asia: coverage of Malaysian government’s stability (Jun 2023)

• Global Finance Magazine: coverage of Malaysia’s 2022 election (Jan 2023)

• Canada Broadcasting Corporation and Global TV: coverage of the coup in Myanmar (Mar 2021)

• Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, and The Diplomat: coverage of Malaysia’s political upheaval (Mar 2020)

• World Politics Review: coverage of Singapore’s evolving politics (Mar 2019)

• South China Morning Post: coverage of Malaysia’s changing relationship with China (Aug 2018)

• Los Angeles Times: coverage of Malaysia’s 2018 election (May 2018)

• Nikkei Asia Review: coverage of Malaysia’s 2018 election (Jan 2018)

• Malaysian Insight (and here), Malaysiakini, Today: coverage of my paper on elections in Malaysia (Dec 2017)

• GCTN: interviewed on the ASEAN summit (Nov 2017)

• The Atlantic: interviewed for article on geography and elections in Malaysia and the US (Jan 2017)

• TODAY (Singapore daily newspaper): analysis of Myanmar's election (Dec 18, 2015); also reprinted in the Malay Mail (Dec 19), Eurasia Review, and the Malaysian Insider (Dec 20).

• Vancouver Sun: interviewed for article on Petronas and Malaysian politics, BC LNG (Sept 11, 2015)

• Vancouver Sun: interviewed for article on controversial Petronas investment in BC LNG (Sept. 10, 2015)

• CTV News: interviewed on bombing in Bangkok, Thailand (August 18, 2015)

• Myanmar National Television: one hour interview (with Yves Tiberghien and Dr. Aung Tun Thet) about the opportunities and challenges of Myanmar's triple transition (August 2015)

• Canada Broadcast Corporation "The Early Edition": interviewed on Malaysia's 1MDB scandal and its implications for LNG investment in British Columbia (July 2015)

• ICI Radio-Canada: on LNG and Malaysia's 1MDB scandal (July 2015)

• Globe and Mail: interviewed for article on political instability in Malaysia (June 2015)

• Globe and Mail: interviewed for article on the death of Lee Kuan Yew (March 2015)

• Globe and Mail: interviewed for article on the persecution of Anwar Ibrahim (Feb 2015)